Maths
Expected value in poker
The average result of a decision if you could repeat it forever, the number every other concept is trying to maximise.
Expected value, or EV, is what a decision is worth on average. Multiply each outcome by how often it happens, add them up, subtract what the decision costs.
Calling $50 into a $150 pot with 35% equity: you win the $200 pot 35% of the time and lose your $50 the other 65%. That is (0.35 × 150) − (0.65 × 50) = $20 in expected value. Profitable, even though the call loses nearly two times in three.
This is why a correct decision can lose. EV is a long-run average, and any single hand is dominated by variance. Judge decisions by their EV, not by how they turned out.
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