12 outs (flush draw with a gutshot), odds and equity
12 outs wins 45.0% of the time with two cards to come and 26.1% with one. That is enough to call a three-quarter-pot bet on the flop. The 2-and-4 shortcut estimates 48.0%.
Which draws have 12 outs
- A flush draw plus a gutshot
- An open-ender plus two overcards
Exact versus shortcut
| Street | Exact equity | 2-and-4 estimate | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flop (two cards to come) | 45.0% | 48.0% | +3.0 |
| Turn (one card to come) | 26.1% | 24.0% | -2.1 |
What 12 outs can call
Comparing your equity against the price each bet size offers. Green means the call breaks even on pot odds alone.
| Bet size | Equity needed | You have | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter pot | 16.7% | 45.0% | Call |
| Third pot | 20.0% | 45.0% | Call |
| Half pot | 25.0% | 45.0% | Call |
| Two-thirds pot | 28.6% | 45.0% | Call |
| Three-quarter pot | 30.0% | 45.0% | Call |
| Pot | 33.3% | 45.0% | Call |
Questions about 12 outs
What are the odds with 12 outs?
12 outs is 45.0% to hit by the river with two cards to come, and 26.1% with only the river left. Those are exact figures, not the 2-and-4 approximation.
What draw has 12 outs?
A flush draw plus a gutshot. An open-ender plus two overcards.
What is the biggest bet 12 outs can call?
On the flop, a three-quarter-pot bet, anything up to 82% of the pot breaks even on pot odds alone. Implied odds can stretch that; being out of position shrinks it.
How far off is the 2-and-4 rule at 12 outs?
The shortcut says 48.0% from the flop against an exact 45.0%, so it is 3.0 points high. The drift grows with the number of outs.
Nearby out counts
- Next stepPut this against a real bet45.0% only means something next to the price you are being offered. The pot odds calculator takes the pot and the bet and gives you the answer in one line.
- 6 outs, two overcards24.1% from the flop
- 8 outs, open-ended straight draw31.5% from the flop
- 9 outs, flush draw35.0% from the flop
- 15 outs, flush draw with an open-ender54.1% from the flop
- All out counts1 to 21
Hear when the outs drills open
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