Equity

Equity does not say what will happen in this hand. It says what happens across every runout at once, weighted by how often each one comes. Any single hand ends with somebody taking all of it.

That is why it pairs with the price rather than standing alone. Equity is what you have. The price is what you need. Every call in poker is those two numbers held next to each other, and nothing else.

Two live overcards against a small pair is the closest thing in poker to a fifty fifty, which is why the pot usually goes in and why tournaments turn on those hands. Both players have a real claim.

Domination is the opposite shape and it is the one that quietly costs money. Ace king against ace queen shares an ace, so the times you both pair are the times the ace queen is drawing nearly dead. The hand is not slightly behind, it is barely playing.

Two cards to come, so roughly four percent per out. One card to come, so roughly two. The real numbers come from the deck arithmetic and the shortcut lands within a point or two of them across the range that matters.

It drifts high once you get past about nine outs on the flop, because it counts the times you hit on the turn and again on the river as two separate wins. With a big draw, take a couple of points off and you are back on the true number.